Bayern Munich
Atlético Madrid
Win Probability
Bayern München travels to face Atlético Madrid in a closely matched Champions League contest where the simulation slightly favours the visitors. The model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on whether either side can convert limited chances into goals. Across eight similar games in AccuScore's record, the favoured away side won 50% of the time, a cautionary note for backing the slight lean toward Bayern. For Atlético Madrid to pull off an upset at home, they would need to suffocate Bayern's attacks and make their own rare opportunities count in a game where both teams are projected to struggle for sustained penetration.
| Book | Line | ATL | EV | FCB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | — | — | — | — | — |
| Book | ATL | EV | FCB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +231 | +3.6% | -103 | -11.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | +210 | +0.2% | +100 | -11.0% |
| Betano ↗ | +240 | +5.1% | +100 | -11.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | +230 | +3.5% | +100 | -11.0% |
| William Hill ↗ | +210 | +0.2% | +105 | -10.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +106 | -22.6% | -130 | +14.9% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -278 | -17.1% | +188 | +24.3% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +118 | -21.0% | -139 | +13.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +110 | -22.1% | -137 | +13.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 28.6%
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Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Bayern Munich 39% to win, Atlético Madrid 32%, with a 29% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Bayern Munich the more likely winner at 39%, with a 29% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Atlético Madrid a 32% chance of beating Bayern Munich, with 39% for Bayern Munich and 29% for a draw. Atlético Madrid are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Bayern Munich and Atlético Madrid come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Bayern Munich have won 0 of their last 2, drawing 2 (D-D, most recent first).
Atlético Madrid have won 1 of their last 2, drawing 1 (D-W, most recent first).