Saint Mary's
2-0
Nevada
1-0
Win Probability
Saint Mary's travels to Nevada as the clear favourite in this matchup. The simulation gives the Gaels the advantage, projecting a low-scoring contest decided by roughly three points. Saint Mary's will need its perimeter shooting to carry the load, while Nevada must find enough scoring depth to stay within range. On games where AccuScore has favoured one side this strongly, that side has won 68% of the time across over 2,000 graded contests. Nevada keeps this close only if it can generate stops on the perimeter and force Saint Mary's into a half-court grind.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | NEV | EV | SMC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars ↗ | +115 | -8.2% | -135 | +3.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -135 | -16.1% | -188 | -3.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.3% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Mary's 61% to beat Nevada (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Mary's the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Nevada a 39% chance of beating Saint Mary's, against 61% for Saint Mary's. Nevada are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Saint Mary's (2-0 so far) project to finish 24.6–5.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 79% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Nevada (1-0 so far) project to finish 22.9–8.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 45% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's | 24.6–5.4 | 61% | 79% |
| Nevada | 22.9–8.1 | 32% | 45% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Saint Mary's and Nevada come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Saint Mary's have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).