Asian handicap calculator
Enter a team's chance of winning in regular time and slide the goal handicap. Quarter lines split the stake across the two lines either side, so they can win or lose half; the calculator shows every outcome and the fair odds for both teams.
- Half win
- 25.8%
- Half loss
- 0.0%
- Loses
- 50.0%
- Fair odds
- +135 · 2.35
- Break-even
- 42.6%
- Half win
- 0.0%
- Half loss
- 25.8%
- Loses
- 24.2%
- Fair odds
- -135 · 1.74
- Break-even
- 57.4%
Lines either side
| Team line | Covers | Push / half | Loses | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.75 | 10.1% | 14.1% / 0.0% | 75.8% | +441 · 5.41 |
| -1.5 | 24.2% | 0.0% | 75.8% | +313 · 4.13 |
| -1.25 | 24.2% | 0.0% / 25.8% | 50.0% | +259 · 3.59 |
| -1 | 24.2% | 25.8% | 50.0% | +206 · 3.06 |
| -0.75 | 24.2% | 25.8% / 0.0% | 50.0% | +135 · 2.35 |
| -0.5 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | -100 · 2.00 |
| -0.25 | 50.0% | 0.0% / 28.1% | 21.9% | -139 · 1.72 |
| 0 | 50.0% | 28.1% | 21.9% | -228 · 1.44 |
| +0.25 | 50.0% | 28.1% / 0.0% | 21.9% | -292 · 1.34 |
Fair odds have no bookmaker margin: a price longer than them is value on these numbers. Based on 48,660 matches from 2014 to 2026; this probability is read from the 3,244 team-games closest to it.
Soccer Asian handicap cover rates by win probability
How often a team covered each Asian handicap, by how often teams like it won. 48,660 matches, 2014–2026.
| Win prob. | -2.5 | -1.5 | -0.5 | +0.5 | +1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 10.0% | 28.1% | 54.3% |
| 15% | 1.3% | 4.7% | 15.0% | 36.8% | 62.7% |
| 20% | 1.8% | 6.9% | 20.0% | 45.2% | 72.2% |
| 25% | 3.2% | 9.6% | 25.0% | 54.5% | 78.1% |
| 30% | 3.7% | 10.9% | 30.0% | 57.1% | 79.7% |
| 35% | 5.1% | 15.2% | 35.0% | 64.8% | 85.5% |
| 40% | 6.6% | 17.3% | 40.0% | 68.8% | 88.0% |
| 45% | 8.3% | 21.4% | 45.0% | 72.3% | 89.8% |
| 50% | 10.1% | 24.2% | 50.0% | 78.1% | 92.9% |
| 55% | 13.1% | 28.4% | 55.0% | 81.1% | 93.7% |
| 60% | 15.7% | 33.0% | 60.0% | 83.4% | 94.8% |
| 65% | 19.7% | 39.4% | 65.0% | 86.4% | 95.8% |
| 70% | 23.6% | 44.2% | 70.0% | 88.9% | 96.5% |
| 75% | 25.6% | 48.5% | 75.0% | 91.4% | 97.1% |
| 80% | 32.7% | 55.4% | 80.0% | 93.6% | 98.5% |
| 85% | 40.3% | 63.9% | 85.0% | 95.8% | 99.2% |
What an Asian handicap says about win probability
The win probability at which each line is a fair bet, pushes aside, and the moneyline that probability is worth with no margin.
| Favourite's line | Win probability | Fair moneyline | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.25 | 43.2% | +132 | — |
| -0.5 | 50.0% | +100 | — |
| -0.75 | 56.2% | -129 | — |
| -1 | 63.3% | -173 | — |
| -1.25 | 69.2% | -224 | — |
| -1.5 | 76.3% | -321 | — |
| -1.75 | 80.2% | -404 | — |
| -2 | 83.7% | -513 | — |
Soccer has a third result, so the underdog's moneyline is not one minus the favourite's: the draw takes its own share.
Common questions
- What win probability does a 0.75-goal favourite have in soccer?
- About 56.2%. Across 48,660 soccer matches from 2014 to 2026, teams that won 56.2% of the time covered -0.75 exactly as often as they failed to, pushes aside, so -0.75 is a fair line for them. As a moneyline with no margin that is -129.
- How often does a 50% soccer favourite cover -1.5?
- 24.2% of the time in the history behind this calculator, which makes the fair price on that side 4.13 in decimal odds (+313).
- How does the calculator turn a win probability into handicap odds?
- It uses real results, not a formula. Every soccer game since 2014 is seen from both teams, grouped by its pre-game chance of winning (the betting market's, or AccuScore's projection where no price was recorded), and each group is labelled by how often its teams actually won. The probability you enter is matched to the groups that won that often, and their final margins decide how often each Asian handicap was covered.
- What is a quarter line?
- A line ending in .25 or .75 is two bets in one: half the stake on each line either side. -0.75 is half on -0.5 and half on -1, so a one-goal win wins the first half and pushes the second. That is why quarter lines can win or lose half the stake.
- Why does the calculator stop at 4.1% and 85.3%?
- Those are the most lopsided soccer matches history has enough of. Beyond them there are too few results to say how often a line is covered, and the calculator does not guess.