College football spread calculator
College football spreads run far wider than the NFL's. Enter a team's chance of winning and slide the line to see how often teams like that covered it, and the odds that make the bet fair.
History covers 5.8% to 94.7%.
Team's point spread: -7Negative gives points (favourite), positive receives them. Steps of 0.25.
Team -7 points
45.4%
covers
- Push
- 7.6%
- Loses
- 47.1%
- Fair odds
- +104 · 2.04
- Break-even
- 49.1%
Opponent +7 points
47.1%
covers
- Push
- 7.6%
- Loses
- 45.4%
- Fair odds
- -104 · 1.96
- Break-even
- 50.9%
Lines either side
| Team line | Covers | Push / half | Loses | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8 | 43.4% | 2.0% | 54.6% | +126 · 2.26 |
| -7.75 | 43.4% | 2.0% / 0.0% | 54.6% | +123 · 2.23 |
| -7.5 | 45.4% | 0.0% | 54.6% | +120 · 2.20 |
| -7.25 | 45.4% | 0.0% / 7.6% | 47.1% | +112 · 2.12 |
| -7 | 45.4% | 7.6% | 47.1% | +104 · 2.04 |
| -6.75 | 45.4% | 7.6% / 0.0% | 47.1% | -105 · 1.96 |
| -6.5 | 52.9% | 0.0% | 47.1% | -113 · 1.89 |
| -6.25 | 52.9% | 0.0% / 2.0% | 45.0% | -115 · 1.87 |
| -6 | 52.9% | 2.0% | 45.0% | -118 · 1.85 |
Fair odds have no bookmaker margin: a price longer than them is value on these numbers. Based on 10,463 games from 2011 to 2026; this probability is read from the 800 team-games closest to it.
college football point spread cover rates by win probability
How often a team covered each point spread, by how often teams like it won. 10,463 games, 2011–2026.
| Win prob. | -3.5 | -7.5 | -10.5 | -14.5 | -17.5 | -21.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| 15% | 10.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% |
| 20% | 14.0% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| 25% | 17.6% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| 30% | 21.9% | 13.9% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.8% |
| 35% | 26.6% | 16.7% | 13.2% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 5.0% |
| 40% | 29.9% | 20.0% | 15.8% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 5.3% |
| 45% | 33.4% | 22.8% | 18.9% | 14.2% | 11.3% | 6.7% |
| 50% | 38.7% | 28.0% | 22.3% | 17.0% | 14.0% | 9.2% |
| 55% | 43.3% | 30.1% | 25.5% | 19.2% | 15.0% | 10.9% |
| 60% | 49.6% | 37.3% | 32.1% | 25.0% | 21.0% | 15.2% |
| 65% | 54.1% | 43.0% | 35.9% | 28.4% | 24.0% | 16.8% |
| 70% | 58.6% | 45.4% | 40.2% | 33.7% | 29.0% | 21.2% |
| 75% | 66.5% | 54.7% | 48.0% | 39.3% | 33.9% | 23.6% |
| 80% | 70.8% | 60.5% | 55.1% | 48.1% | 41.5% | 32.1% |
| 85% | 77.9% | 65.6% | 60.2% | 51.5% | 44.6% | 36.8% |
| 90% | 84.0% | 75.1% | 68.4% | 61.0% | 55.2% | 45.1% |
What a point spread says about win probability
The win probability at which each line is a fair bet, pushes aside, and the moneyline that probability is worth with no margin.
| Favourite's line | Win probability | Fair moneyline | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 56.6% | -131 | +131 |
| -7 | 70.4% | -238 | +238 |
| -10 | 74.9% | -298 | +298 |
| -14 | 80.2% | -405 | +405 |
| -17 | 86.6% | -648 | +648 |
| -21 | 91.2% | -1031 | +1031 |
| -24 | 92.9% | -1305 | +1305 |
| -28 | 93.7% | -1487 | +1487 |
Common questions
- What win probability does a 7-point favourite have in college football?
- About 70.4%. Across 10,463 college football games from 2011 to 2026, teams that won 70.4% of the time covered -7 exactly as often as they failed to, pushes aside, so -7 is a fair line for them. As a moneyline with no margin that is -238.
- How often does a 70% college football favourite cover -3.5?
- 58.6% of the time in the history behind this calculator, which makes the fair price on that side 1.71 in decimal odds (-142).
- How does the calculator turn a win probability into handicap odds?
- It uses real results, not a formula. Every college football game since 2011 is seen from both teams, grouped by its pre-game chance of winning (the betting market's, or AccuScore's projection where no price was recorded), and each group is labelled by how often its teams actually won. The probability you enter is matched to the groups that won that often, and their final margins decide how often each point spread was covered.
- What is a quarter line?
- A line ending in .25 or .75 is two bets in one: half the stake on each line either side. -0.75 is half on -0.5 and half on -1, so a one-point win wins the first half and pushes the second. That is why quarter lines can win or lose half the stake.
- Why does the calculator stop at 5.8% and 94.7%?
- Those are the most lopsided college football games history has enough of. Beyond them there are too few results to say how often a line is covered, and the calculator does not guess.