College basketball spread calculator
Enter a team's chance of winning and slide the spread to see how often college basketball teams like that covered, pushed and lost, and the odds that make each side fair.
History covers 3.0% to 96.9%.
Team's point spread: -6.5Negative gives points (favourite), positive receives them. Steps of 0.25.
Team -6.5 points
49.2%
covers
- Push
- 0.0%
- Loses
- 50.8%
- Fair odds
- +103 · 2.03
- Break-even
- 49.2%
Opponent +6.5 points
50.8%
covers
- Push
- 0.0%
- Loses
- 49.2%
- Fair odds
- -103 · 1.97
- Break-even
- 50.8%
Lines either side
| Team line | Covers | Push / half | Loses | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | 45.7% | 0.0% | 54.3% | +119 · 2.19 |
| -7.25 | 45.7% | 0.0% / 3.5% | 50.8% | +115 · 2.15 |
| -7 | 45.7% | 3.5% | 50.8% | +111 · 2.11 |
| -6.75 | 45.7% | 3.5% / 0.0% | 50.8% | +107 · 2.07 |
| -6.5 | 49.2% | 0.0% | 50.8% | +103 · 2.03 |
| -6.25 | 49.2% | 0.0% / 3.7% | 47.1% | -101 · 1.99 |
| -6 | 49.2% | 3.7% | 47.1% | -105 · 1.96 |
| -5.75 | 49.2% | 3.7% / 0.0% | 47.1% | -109 · 1.92 |
| -5.5 | 52.9% | 0.0% | 47.1% | -113 · 1.89 |
Fair odds have no bookmaker margin: a price longer than them is value on these numbers. Based on 11,741 games from 2022 to 2026; this probability is read from the 1,600 team-games closest to it.
college basketball point spread cover rates by win probability
How often a team covered each point spread, by how often teams like it won. 11,741 games, 2022–2026.
| Win prob. | -2.5 | -5.5 | -8.5 | -11.5 | -14.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| 15% | 10.7% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| 20% | 15.6% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| 25% | 20.6% | 13.4% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
| 30% | 24.9% | 15.9% | 10.7% | 6.7% | 4.3% |
| 35% | 30.5% | 20.5% | 14.0% | 9.0% | 4.8% |
| 40% | 34.8% | 25.7% | 17.8% | 12.1% | 7.7% |
| 45% | 39.2% | 29.0% | 19.9% | 12.8% | 8.5% |
| 50% | 45.4% | 37.3% | 29.9% | 23.9% | 19.2% |
| 55% | 51.0% | 38.6% | 28.6% | 22.0% | 15.1% |
| 60% | 55.1% | 45.6% | 36.6% | 28.1% | 20.8% |
| 65% | 58.2% | 46.6% | 35.2% | 23.8% | 18.7% |
| 70% | 65.1% | 52.9% | 41.5% | 31.1% | 22.9% |
| 75% | 70.4% | 59.3% | 47.3% | 36.7% | 27.0% |
| 80% | 74.4% | 61.9% | 52.8% | 40.7% | 29.1% |
| 85% | 79.9% | 69.3% | 58.4% | 46.3% | 35.1% |
| 90% | 87.6% | 81.5% | 71.7% | 60.0% | 50.5% |
What a point spread says about win probability
The win probability at which each line is a fair bet, pushes aside, and the moneyline that probability is worth with no margin.
| Favourite's line | Win probability | Fair moneyline | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 51.2% | -105 | +105 |
| -3 | 56.5% | -130 | +130 |
| -5 | 65.8% | -192 | +192 |
| -7 | 72.2% | -259 | +259 |
| -10 | 83.3% | -499 | +499 |
| -13 | 89.0% | -808 | +808 |
| -16 | 91.7% | -1106 | +1106 |
| -20 | 94.9% | -1874 | +1874 |
Common questions
- What win probability does a 5-point favourite have in college basketball?
- About 65.8%. Across 11,741 college basketball games from 2022 to 2026, teams that won 65.8% of the time covered -5 exactly as often as they failed to, pushes aside, so -5 is a fair line for them. As a moneyline with no margin that is -192.
- How often does a 70% college basketball favourite cover -2.5?
- 65.1% of the time in the history behind this calculator, which makes the fair price on that side 1.54 in decimal odds (-187).
- How does the calculator turn a win probability into handicap odds?
- It uses real results, not a formula. Every college basketball game since 2022 is seen from both teams, grouped by its pre-game chance of winning (the betting market's, or AccuScore's projection where no price was recorded), and each group is labelled by how often its teams actually won. The probability you enter is matched to the groups that won that often, and their final margins decide how often each point spread was covered.
- What is a quarter line?
- A line ending in .25 or .75 is two bets in one: half the stake on each line either side. -0.75 is half on -0.5 and half on -1, so a one-point win wins the first half and pushes the second. That is why quarter lines can win or lose half the stake.
- Why does the calculator stop at 3.0% and 96.9%?
- Those are the most lopsided college basketball games history has enough of. Beyond them there are too few results to say how often a line is covered, and the calculator does not guess.