NBA spread calculator
Enter how likely a team is to win and move the spread. The calculator shows how often NBA teams like that covered, pushed and lost against the line, and the fair odds on each side.
History covers 8.6% to 91.4%.
Team's point spread: -5.5Negative gives points (favourite), positive receives them. Steps of 0.25.
Team -5.5 points
48.5%
covers
- Push
- 0.0%
- Loses
- 51.5%
- Fair odds
- +106 · 2.06
- Break-even
- 48.5%
Opponent +5.5 points
51.5%
covers
- Push
- 0.0%
- Loses
- 48.5%
- Fair odds
- -106 · 1.94
- Break-even
- 51.5%
Lines either side
| Team line | Covers | Push / half | Loses | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6.5 | 43.7% | 0.0% | 56.3% | +129 · 2.29 |
| -6.25 | 43.7% | 0.0% / 4.8% | 51.5% | +123 · 2.23 |
| -6 | 43.7% | 4.8% | 51.5% | +118 · 2.18 |
| -5.75 | 43.7% | 4.8% / 0.0% | 51.5% | +112 · 2.12 |
| -5.5 | 48.5% | 0.0% | 51.5% | +106 · 2.06 |
| -5.25 | 48.5% | 0.0% / 3.4% | 48.1% | +102 · 2.02 |
| -5 | 48.5% | 3.4% | 48.1% | -101 · 1.99 |
| -4.75 | 48.5% | 3.4% / 0.0% | 48.1% | -105 · 1.96 |
| -4.5 | 51.9% | 0.0% | 48.1% | -108 · 1.92 |
Fair odds have no bookmaker margin: a price longer than them is value on these numbers. Based on 20,462 games from 2010 to 2026; this probability is read from the 1,364 team-games closest to it.
NBA point spread cover rates by win probability
How often a team covered each point spread, by how often teams like it won. 20,462 games, 2010–2026.
| Win prob. | -2.5 | -4.5 | -6.5 | -8.5 | -10.5 | -12.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| 15% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| 20% | 16.5% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% |
| 25% | 21.2% | 16.8% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 6.0% |
| 30% | 25.0% | 21.1% | 16.4% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% |
| 35% | 30.4% | 25.5% | 20.3% | 15.6% | 11.9% | 9.1% |
| 40% | 34.8% | 29.1% | 23.5% | 18.3% | 15.4% | 12.3% |
| 45% | 39.5% | 33.5% | 27.5% | 21.3% | 16.8% | 13.0% |
| 50% | 44.4% | 38.5% | 32.0% | 25.8% | 20.6% | 16.6% |
| 55% | 50.0% | 42.9% | 35.1% | 28.6% | 22.3% | 17.9% |
| 60% | 54.2% | 47.5% | 38.7% | 31.3% | 25.9% | 20.3% |
| 65% | 58.8% | 51.9% | 43.7% | 36.1% | 28.9% | 24.5% |
| 70% | 65.3% | 58.2% | 50.3% | 41.6% | 35.1% | 27.2% |
| 75% | 70.6% | 63.7% | 56.1% | 46.5% | 38.6% | 31.9% |
| 80% | 74.7% | 68.9% | 61.5% | 53.2% | 46.3% | 38.1% |
| 85% | 81.8% | 77.9% | 69.6% | 61.1% | 53.9% | 47.4% |
| 90% | 87.4% | 83.3% | 76.2% | 68.2% | 60.9% | 54.4% |
What a point spread says about win probability
The win probability at which each line is a fair bet, pushes aside, and the moneyline that probability is worth with no margin.
| Favourite's line | Win probability | Fair moneyline | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 51.4% | -106 | +106 |
| -2 | 52.9% | -112 | +112 |
| -3 | 57.1% | -133 | +133 |
| -4 | 60.6% | -154 | +154 |
| -5 | 64.8% | -184 | +184 |
| -6 | 66.5% | -199 | +199 |
| -7 | 71.8% | -254 | +254 |
| -8 | 75.6% | -309 | +309 |
| -10 | 81.9% | -451 | +451 |
| -12 | 85.7% | -602 | +602 |
| -14 | 90.5% | -951 | +951 |
Common questions
- What win probability does a 3-point favourite have in the NBA?
- About 57.1%. Across 20,462 NBA games from 2010 to 2026, teams that won 57.1% of the time covered -3 exactly as often as they failed to, pushes aside, so -3 is a fair line for them. As a moneyline with no margin that is -133.
- How often does a 65% NBA favourite cover -2.5?
- 58.8% of the time in the history behind this calculator, which makes the fair price on that side 1.70 in decimal odds (-143).
- How does the calculator turn a win probability into handicap odds?
- It uses real results, not a formula. Every NBA game since 2010 is seen from both teams, grouped by its pre-game chance of winning (the betting market's, or AccuScore's projection where no price was recorded), and each group is labelled by how often its teams actually won. The probability you enter is matched to the groups that won that often, and their final margins decide how often each point spread was covered.
- What is a quarter line?
- A line ending in .25 or .75 is two bets in one: half the stake on each line either side. -0.75 is half on -0.5 and half on -1, so a one-point win wins the first half and pushes the second. That is why quarter lines can win or lose half the stake.
- Why does the calculator stop at 8.6% and 91.4%?
- Those are the most lopsided NBA games history has enough of. Beyond them there are too few results to say how often a line is covered, and the calculator does not guess.