NFL spread calculator
Enter how likely a team is to win and slide the point spread. The calculator shows how often teams like that covered, pushed and lost against the line, and the odds at which the bet is fair for each side.
History covers 14.8% to 83.9%.
Team's point spread: -3Negative gives points (favourite), positive receives them. Steps of 0.25.
Team -3 points
47.6%
covers
- Push
- 7.4%
- Loses
- 45.0%
- Fair odds
- -106 · 1.95
- Break-even
- 51.4%
Opponent +3 points
45.0%
covers
- Push
- 7.4%
- Loses
- 47.6%
- Fair odds
- +106 · 2.06
- Break-even
- 48.6%
Lines either side
| Team line | Covers | Push / half | Loses | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4 | 43.2% | 4.4% | 52.4% | +121 · 2.21 |
| -3.75 | 43.2% | 4.4% / 0.0% | 52.4% | +115 · 2.15 |
| -3.5 | 47.6% | 0.0% | 52.4% | +110 · 2.10 |
| -3.25 | 47.6% | 0.0% / 7.4% | 45.0% | +102 · 2.02 |
| -3 | 47.6% | 7.4% | 45.0% | -106 · 1.95 |
| -2.75 | 47.6% | 7.4% / 0.0% | 45.0% | -114 · 1.88 |
| -2.5 | 55.0% | 0.0% | 45.0% | -122 · 1.82 |
| -2.25 | 55.0% | 0.0% / 2.8% | 42.2% | -126 · 1.79 |
| -2 | 55.0% | 2.8% | 42.2% | -130 · 1.77 |
Fair odds have no bookmaker margin: a price longer than them is value on these numbers. Based on 4,218 games from 2011 to 2026; this probability is read from the 1,200 team-games closest to it.
NFL point spread cover rates by win probability
How often a team covered each point spread, by how often teams like it won. 4,218 games, 2011–2026.
| Win prob. | -1.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -10.5 | -13.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.6% |
| 20% | 18.9% | 17.5% | 13.1% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| 25% | 23.1% | 21.3% | 16.2% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 5.0% |
| 30% | 27.2% | 25.1% | 20.0% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 6.2% |
| 35% | 33.2% | 32.0% | 24.7% | 17.2% | 13.3% | 10.0% | 8.4% |
| 40% | 37.5% | 36.2% | 29.2% | 20.9% | 18.0% | 12.5% | 10.3% |
| 45% | 41.9% | 39.9% | 32.3% | 24.5% | 20.2% | 15.6% | 12.5% |
| 50% | 47.7% | 44.1% | 36.5% | 28.7% | 24.7% | 18.5% | 14.8% |
| 55% | 52.5% | 49.7% | 40.5% | 31.6% | 25.6% | 18.5% | 16.2% |
| 60% | 57.8% | 55.0% | 47.6% | 37.4% | 31.6% | 24.4% | 21.3% |
| 65% | 63.7% | 61.6% | 52.7% | 43.6% | 39.1% | 30.6% | 25.8% |
| 70% | 67.0% | 64.7% | 57.3% | 47.9% | 41.1% | 34.1% | 30.4% |
| 75% | 72.0% | 69.3% | 63.1% | 52.7% | 45.9% | 38.9% | 34.5% |
| 80% | 78.3% | 76.2% | 68.8% | 59.0% | 52.8% | 45.4% | 40.3% |
What a point spread says about win probability
The win probability at which each line is a fair bet, pushes aside, and the moneyline that probability is worth with no margin.
| Favourite's line | Win probability | Fair moneyline | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 51.2% | -105 | +105 |
| -1.5 | 52.4% | -110 | +110 |
| -2 | 53.9% | -117 | +117 |
| -2.5 | 55.2% | -123 | +123 |
| -3 | 58.9% | -143 | +143 |
| -3.5 | 64.0% | -178 | +178 |
| -4 | 64.5% | -182 | +182 |
| -6 | 70.0% | -233 | +233 |
| -7 | 75.8% | -312 | +312 |
| -7.5 | 78.1% | -356 | +356 |
| -10 | 82.1% | -458 | +458 |
Common questions
- What win probability does a 3-point favourite have in the NFL?
- About 58.9%. Across 4,218 NFL games from 2011 to 2026, teams that won 58.9% of the time covered -3 exactly as often as they failed to, pushes aside, so -3 is a fair line for them. As a moneyline with no margin that is -143.
- How often does a 60% NFL favourite cover -1.5?
- 57.8% of the time in the history behind this calculator, which makes the fair price on that side 1.73 in decimal odds (-137).
- How does the calculator turn a win probability into handicap odds?
- It uses real results, not a formula. Every NFL game since 2011 is seen from both teams, grouped by its pre-game chance of winning (the betting market's, or AccuScore's projection where no price was recorded), and each group is labelled by how often its teams actually won. The probability you enter is matched to the groups that won that often, and their final margins decide how often each point spread was covered.
- What is a quarter line?
- A line ending in .25 or .75 is two bets in one: half the stake on each line either side. -0.75 is half on -0.5 and half on -1, so a one-point win wins the first half and pushes the second. That is why quarter lines can win or lose half the stake.
- Why does the calculator stop at 14.8% and 83.9%?
- Those are the most lopsided NFL games history has enough of. Beyond them there are too few results to say how often a line is covered, and the calculator does not guess.