NHL puck line calculator
The puck line is hockey's spread, nearly always 1.5 goals, and it is settled on the final score including overtime and the shootout. Enter how likely a team is to win and see how often teams like that won by two or more, with fair odds for both sides.
History covers 22.3% to 77.7%.
Team's puck line: -1.5Negative gives goals (favourite), positive receives them. Steps of 0.25.
Team -1.5 goals
36.5%
covers
- Push
- 0.0%
- Loses
- 63.5%
- Fair odds
- +174 · 2.74
- Break-even
- 36.5%
Opponent +1.5 goals
63.5%
covers
- Push
- 0.0%
- Loses
- 36.5%
- Fair odds
- -174 · 1.57
- Break-even
- 63.5%
Lines either side
| Team line | Covers | Push / half | Loses | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 25.1% | 0.0% | 74.9% | +298 · 3.98 |
| -2.25 | 25.1% | 0.0% / 11.3% | 63.5% | +275 · 3.75 |
| -2 | 25.1% | 11.3% | 63.5% | +253 · 3.53 |
| -1.75 | 25.1% | 11.3% / 0.0% | 63.5% | +206 · 3.06 |
| -1.5 | 36.5% | 0.0% | 63.5% | +174 · 2.74 |
| -1.25 | 36.5% | 0.0% / 23.5% | 40.0% | +142 · 2.42 |
| -1 | 36.5% | 23.5% | 40.0% | +110 · 2.10 |
| -0.75 | 36.5% | 23.5% / 0.0% | 40.0% | -121 · 1.83 |
| -0.5 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | -150 · 1.67 |
Fair odds have no bookmaker margin: a price longer than them is value on these numbers. Based on 18,030 games from 2011 to 2026; this probability is read from the 1,202 team-games closest to it.
NHL puck line cover rates by win probability
How often a team covered each puck line, by how often teams like it won. 18,030 games, 2011–2026.
| Win prob. | -2.5 | -1.5 | +1.5 | +2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 48.6% | 63.4% |
| 30% | 9.0% | 16.0% | 53.8% | 67.8% |
| 35% | 9.5% | 17.0% | 61.4% | 73.6% |
| 40% | 10.4% | 18.7% | 62.9% | 74.3% |
| 45% | 15.4% | 24.8% | 67.8% | 78.9% |
| 50% | 18.3% | 28.2% | 71.0% | 81.2% |
| 55% | 21.1% | 32.2% | 75.3% | 84.6% |
| 60% | 25.1% | 36.5% | 81.3% | 89.4% |
| 65% | 27.5% | 39.3% | 83.3% | 90.6% |
| 70% | 32.2% | 46.1% | 84.2% | 91.1% |
| 75% | 36.7% | 51.3% | 88.0% | 92.4% |
What a puck line says about win probability
The win probability at which each line is a fair bet, pushes aside, and the moneyline that probability is worth with no margin.
| Favourite's line | Win probability | Fair moneyline | Underdog |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 73.8% | -281 | +281 |
| -1 | 62.0% | -163 | +163 |
| -0.5 | 50.0% | -100 | +100 |
Common questions
- What win probability does a 1.5-goal favourite have in the NHL?
- About 73.8%. Across 18,030 NHL games from 2011 to 2026, teams that won 73.8% of the time covered -1.5 exactly as often as they failed to, pushes aside, so -1.5 is a fair line for them. As a moneyline with no margin that is -281.
- How often does a 60% NHL favourite cover -1.5?
- 36.5% of the time in the history behind this calculator, which makes the fair price on that side 2.74 in decimal odds (+174).
- How does the calculator turn a win probability into handicap odds?
- It uses real results, not a formula. Every NHL game since 2011 is seen from both teams, grouped by its pre-game chance of winning (the betting market's, or AccuScore's projection where no price was recorded), and each group is labelled by how often its teams actually won. The probability you enter is matched to the groups that won that often, and their final margins decide how often each puck line was covered.
- What is a quarter line?
- A line ending in .25 or .75 is two bets in one: half the stake on each line either side. -0.75 is half on -0.5 and half on -1, so a one-goal win wins the first half and pushes the second. That is why quarter lines can win or lose half the stake.
- Why does the calculator stop at 22.3% and 77.7%?
- Those are the most lopsided NHL games history has enough of. Beyond them there are too few results to say how often a line is covered, and the calculator does not guess.