Season Forecasts
Simulation-based win totals, playoff odds, and championship probabilities — updated daily via AccuScore.
Simulation-based win totals, playoff odds, and championship probabilities — updated daily via AccuScore.
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stMiami Hurricanes | 5-0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 95% | 95% |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 5-1 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 2% | 23% |
SMU Mustangs | 4-1 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1% | 8% |
Pittsburgh Panthers | 5-1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1% | 4% |
Duke Blue Devils | 4-1 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 1% | 3% |
Louisville Cardinals | 3-3 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 0% | 3% |
Clemson Tigers | 3-2 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 0% | 2% |
Virginia Tech Hokies | 4-2 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 0% | 1% |
Virginia Cavaliers | 4-2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 0% | 1% |
Florida State Seminoles | 3-3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 0% | 1% |
North Carolina State Wolfpack | 3-3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | — | 0% |
North Carolina Tar Heels | 3-2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0% | 1% |
California Golden Bears | 3-3 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 0% | 1% |
Syracuse Orange | 2-3 | 4.2 | 7.8 | — | 0% |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 2-3 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 0% | 0% |
Stanford Cardinal | 2-4 | 3.7 | 8.3 | — | — |
Boston College Eagles | 2-3 | 3.3 | 8.7 | — | — |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stMemphis Tigers | 5-1 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 33% | 7% |
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners | 5-1 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 26% | 5% |
North Texas Eagles | 4-2 | 8.1 |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stUtah Utes | 5-0 | 10.4 | 1.6 | 42% | 67% |
Texas Tech Red Raiders | 5-0 | 10.2 | 1.8 | 27% | 55% |
Brigham Young Cougars | 5-0 | 9.1 |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stIndiana Hoosiers | 6-0 | 10.8 | 1.2 | 46% | 85% |
UCLA Bruins | 5-0 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 13% | 40% |
Ohio State Buckeyes | 5-1 | 9.7 |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stLiberty Flames | 5-1 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 62% | 1% |
Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 5-2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 21% | 0% |
Florida Intl Golden Panthers | 3-3 | 6.1 |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stToledo Rockets | 4-2 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 25% | 1% |
Western Michigan Broncos | 4-2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 31% | 1% |
Ohio Bobcats | 4-2 | 8.1 |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stNew Mexico Lobos | 4-1 | 9.8 | 2.2 | 56% | 14% |
North Dakota State Bison | 5-1 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 21% | 4% |
UNLV Rebels | 4-2 | 7.9 |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stBoise State Broncos | 5-1 | 9.1 | 1.9 | 63% | 25% |
Oregon State Beavers | 4-2 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 31% | 6% |
Fresno State Bulldogs | 4-2 | 7.0 |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stGeorgia Bulldogs | 6-0 | 11.0 | 1.0 | 73% | 93% |
Alabama Crimson Tide | 5-1 | 9.9 | 2.1 | 11% | 76% |
Texas Longhorns | 4-1 | 9.1 |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stJames Madison | 6-0 | 10.9 | 1.1 | 87% | 38% |
Georgia State Panthers | 4-1 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 7% | 0% |
Appalachian State Mountaineers | 3-2 | 6.6 |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stNotre Dame Fighting Irish | 6-0 | 11.2 | 0.8 | — | 98% |
Connecticut Huskies | 3-3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | — | — |
Powered by AccuScore • Updated Friday, October 16
The most likely bracket across AccuScore's simulations of the rest of the season: each seed goes to the team that holds it most often, and the favourite advances from every game. The percentage beside a team is its chance to win that game if the matchup happens. Title odds further down add up every possible path, so the favourite to win it all is not always the team at the end of this bracket.
Projected National Championship winner: Georgia Bulldogs
The percentage beside a seed is how often that team finishes in that exact seed. “Auto bid” marks a conference champion’s automatic place.
Each team's chance to reach every round, and to win it all. Top 12 by title chance.
| Team | Make CFP | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Championship | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Bulldogs | 93% | 85% | 56% | 34% | 19.7% |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 98% | 92% | 59% | 33% | 17.9% |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 78% | 67% | 42% | 25% | 14.2% |
| Miami Hurricanes |
Simulation run 10/16/2026 10:00:36.
| 3.9 |
| 21% |
2% |
South Florida Bulls | 4-2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1% | 0% |
Florida Atlantic Owls | 4-1 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 5% | 1% |
Army Black Knights | 3-2 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 6% | 0% |
East Carolina Pirates | 3-2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 4% | 0% |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 3-3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 1% | 0% |
Tulane Green Wave | 2-3 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 2% | 0% |
Temple Owls | 2-4 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 1% | — |
Navy Midshipmen | 2-3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 1% | — |
UAB Blazers | 3-3 | 4.9 | 7.1 | 0% | — |
Rice Owls | 1-5 | 2.5 | 9.5 | — | — |
Charlotte 49ers | 0-6 | 0.7 | 11.3 | — | — |
| 2.9 |
| 15% |
31% |
Houston Cougars | 5-1 | 8.9 | 3.1 | 5% | 22% |
Arizona Wildcats | 5-1 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 2% | 10% |
Oklahoma State Cowboys | 4-1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 5% | 14% |
Baylor Bears | 4-1 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 3% | 6% |
Kansas State Wildcats | 3-2 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 0% | 2% |
Cincinnati Bearcats | 4-1 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 0% | 1% |
Iowa State Cyclones | 3-3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0% | 1% |
Arizona State Sun Devils | 3-2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 0% | 1% |
UCF Golden Knights | 3-3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 0% | 0% |
Kansas Jayhawks | 2-3 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 0% | 0% |
TCU Horned Frogs | 2-3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 0% | 0% |
West Virginia Mountaineers | 3-3 | 4.6 | 7.4 | — | 0% |
Colorado Buffaloes | 2-3 | 3.7 | 8.3 | — | 0% |
| 2.3 |
| 32% |
78% |
Iowa Hawkeyes | 5-1 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 1% | 21% |
Wisconsin Badgers | 4-1 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 4% | 16% |
USC Trojans | 6-1 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 2% | 11% |
Nebraska Cornhuskers | 5-1 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1% | 12% |
Oregon Ducks | 3-2 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1% | 20% |
Northwestern Wildcats | 4-1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 0% | 9% |
Penn State Nittany Lions | 3-3 | 7.0 | 5.0 | — | 1% |
Michigan Wolverines | 3-2 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 0% | 1% |
Minnesota | 4-2 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 0% | 0% |
Illinois Fighting Illini | 3-3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | — | 0% |
Purdue Boilermakers | 3-3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 0% | 0% |
Washington Huskies | 3-3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | — | 0% |
Maryland Terrapins | 2-4 | 4.0 | 8.0 | — | — |
Michigan State Spartans | 2-4 | 3.8 | 8.2 | — | 0% |
Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 1-4 | 2.6 | 9.4 | — | — |
| 5.9 |
| 5% |
— |
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 3-3 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 1% | — |
Delaware Blue Hens | 2-4 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 1% | — |
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 3-4 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4% | — |
New Mexico State Aggies | 2-4 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 3% | — |
Missouri State Bears | 2-4 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 2% | — |
Kennesaw State Owls | 1-5 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 1% | — |
Sam Houston Bearkats | 1-5 | 3.9 | 8.1 | 0% | — |
| 3.9 |
| 23% |
0% |
Massachusetts Minutemen | 4-2 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1% | 0% |
Miami (OH) Red Hawks | 3-3 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 7% | 0% |
Eastern Michigan Eagles | 4-3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 7% | 0% |
Buffalo Bulls | 3-3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 1% | — |
Central Michigan Chippewas | 3-3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 1% | — |
Bowling Green Falcons | 2-4 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 3% | — |
Kent State Golden Flashes | 2-4 | 3.9 | 8.1 | 0% | — |
Ball State Cardinals | 1-5 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 0% | — |
Akron Zips | 1-5 | 2.8 | 9.2 | 0% | — |
Sacramento State Hornets | 1-5 | 2.1 | 9.9 | — | — |
| 4.1 |
| 16% |
0% |
Air Force Falcons | 4-1 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 5% | 0% |
San Jose State Spartans | 3-3 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 1% | — |
Wyoming Cowboys | 3-3 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 1% | — |
Nevada Wolfpack | 2-3 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 1% | — |
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 1-5 | 3.9 | 8.1 | — | — |
UTEP Miners | 1-5 | 2.4 | 9.6 | — | — |
Northern Illinois Huskies | 0-5 | 2.4 | 9.6 | 0% | — |
| 4.0 |
| 3% |
1% |
Texas State Bobcats | 2-3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3% | 0% |
Utah State Aggies | 2-4 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 0% | — |
San Diego State Aztecs | 2-4 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 0% | — |
Colorado State Rams | 2-3 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 0% | — |
Washington State Cougars | 1-5 | 2.9 | 8.1 | 0% | — |
| 2.9 |
| 7% |
54% |
Ole Miss | 4-1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 4% | 31% |
Tennessee Volunteers | 5-1 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1% | 19% |
Kentucky Wildcats | 5-1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1% | 13% |
Missouri Tigers | 5-1 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 2% | 17% |
LSU Tigers | 4-2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1% | 20% |
Mississippi State Bulldogs | 4-1 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 0% | 7% |
Oklahoma Sooners | 3-2 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 1% | 11% |
Florida Gators | 4-2 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 0% | 3% |
Auburn Tigers | 3-2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 0% | 1% |
South Carolina Gamecocks | 3-3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | — | 1% |
Texas A&M Aggies | 3-3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | — | 1% |
Vanderbilt Commodores | 3-3 | 4.6 | 7.4 | — | 0% |
Arkansas Razorbacks | 2-4 | 3.1 | 8.9 | — | — |
| 5.4 |
| 3% |
0% |
Georgia Southern Eagles | 2-4 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 2% | 0% |
Marshall Thundering Herd | 3-3 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 0% | — |
Old Dominion Monarchs | 2-4 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 0% | — |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 2-4 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 1% | — |
| Team | W-L | Proj W | Proj L | Div% | Playoff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1stLouisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns | 4-2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 21% | 0% |
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 3-2 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 41% | 0% |
South Alabama Jaguars | 4-2 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 23% | 0% |
Troy Trojans | 3-2 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 12% | 0% |
Arkansas State Indians | 2-4 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 2% | — |
Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 1-4 | 3.4 | 8.6 | 1% | — |
UL Monroe Warhawks | 0-5 | 1.3 | 10.7 | 0% | — |
| 95% |
| 84% |
| 50% |
| 26% |
| 13.3% |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 76% | 61% | 34% | 18% | 9.2% |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 85% | 70% | 36% | 17% | 7.7% |
| Texas Longhorns | 54% | 41% | 22% | 11% | 5.5% |
| Utah Utes | 67% | 47% | 19% | 7% | 2.5% |
| Ole Miss | 31% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2.0% |
| LSU Tigers | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1.2% |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 55% | 34% | 12% | 4% | 1.2% |
| Oregon Ducks | 20% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1.1% |